New Study on Obama Commercial Crew Program Sparks Controversy
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ac/20110405/...ks_controversy
A recent study by The Aerospace Corporation that was presented to NASA administrator Charles Bolden has thrown a little bit of cold water on the Obama administration's approach to commercial space transportation.
The study makes the assumption that development costs for two commercial crew providers plus 10 years of operation would be anywhere from $10 billion to $20 billion. It also suggests that the cost per seat on a commercial crew space craft would be two to three times that of a foreign based (i.e. Soyuz) option.
While there is certainly virtue in not having to depend on Russia for transportation to a space station built and paid for primarily by the United States, $10 billion to $20 billion does seem stiff to create a "commercial" alternative. In any event, The Aerospace Corporation study was quickly attacked for both its assumptions and its conclusions by the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, which supports the commercial crew program of the Obama administration.
The Commercial Spaceflight Federation suggested that the inputs used in The Aerospace Corporation's modeling were flawed because they were based on historical data that did not take into account some of the innovative practices of companies like SpaceX. However, the CSF made some assumptions of its own about the development of private markets for commercial spacecraft being developed under the Obama administration's commercial crew program.
The Commercial Spaceflight Federation suggests that The Aerospace Corporation underestimated the market for space tourism and for what it calls the "sovereign client" (i.e. nation states without their own spaceflight capability) market. The CSF assumes these markets will be much larger than The Aerospace Corporation assumes, thus resulting in greater flight rates for commercial space craft, thus lowering the cost per seat.
The Commercial Spaceflight Federation also points out that the study does not take into account price increases for Russian Soyuz services.
This controversy illustrates the difficulty of projecting how viable the commercial space sector will be, at least in the near term. Anyone can come to any conclusion if the assumptions are made to create the conclusions. One can choose to believe The Aerospace Corporation's assumption that historical precedence guides the development of future space craft. Or one can choose to believe the Commercial Spaceflight Federation's assumption that the practices of companies like SpaceX constitute a break with the past. Similar assumptions can be made for the near term size of private markets for space transportation.
The Aerospace Company suggests a parallel development of a government spacecraft and commercial spacecraft would ensure space access for the United States. This was the approach that was scrapped, along with the Constellation program, by the Obama administration. The United States, for better or ill, is going all in on a "commercial" space sector heavily financed by the government.
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks