How do you jump to that conclusion?
I do not believe that it is impossible that NASA can make Ares-I fly. I'm sure that the engineers are doing their best. But that doesn't make it the right choice. I'm just trying to work out why it continues to be the chosen path when it appears to be no longer needed.
As I have mentioned in several posts now, none of which have been refuted, the EELV option would be faster, cheaper, and probably as safe as Ares. On safety, I am of course talking here of the current Ares-I, with its TO issues and single fault tolerance, not the frankly irrelevant ESAS version.
The only argument anybody on this board has put in favor of Ares is that it has contracts and inertia. Yet Ares will take so long to develop that it will take until about 2013 before it becomes a faster option than an EELV.
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